Climate change projections
Climate change will result in warmer temperatures, more hot days (≥25°C), fewer frosts (≤0°C), changes in rainfall patterns, more extreme weather events and a rise in sea level.
For more information please see NIWA's report on Climate Change Projections for the Canterbury/Waitaha region.
Sea level rise
Sea level is projected to rise by up to 80 cm above the 1986-2005 baseline.
Wildfire
Wildfires will become more likely as hotter, drier summers occur. Rural areas will be more exposed.
Drought
Drought potential is likely to increase across most of Waitaha.
Hot days
Hot days are those over 25°C. It is projected that in many parts of Canterbury, there will be between 20 and 60 more hot days annually by 2100.
Wind
Wind is likely to increase in speed, and winter and spring are likely to be windier. This seasonal change is likely to be more strongly felt in inland areas north and west of Rangiora.
Summer rainfall
Summer rainfall is projected to increase by up to 20 per cent in the inland Waitaha Plains. A decrease of up to 10 per cent is projected for the area around Christchurch/Ōtautahi, with as much as 15 per cent less summer rainfall expected on Banks Peninsula/Te Pātaka o Rākaihautū.
Winter rainfall
An increase in winter rainfall of 15-40 per cent is expected in the eastern, western and southern parts of the region. Winter rainfall has the potential to be more strongly associated with storm events.
Snow days
As temperatures rise, there will be fewer snow days across the region.
Frost days
For much of Canterbury, it is projected that there will be 10-50 fewer frost days per year (when the minimum temperature reaches 0°C or lower).
Extreme weather
Extreme weather events (e.g., severe storms) are likely to happen more often.
Temperature rises
Our annual mean temperature is expected to rise by 1.5-3.5°C, with seasonal mean maximum temperatures between 2-5°C warmer than the historic average (1986-2005). Alpine areas of Waitaha could have a 5-6°C increase in spring and summer mean maximum temperatures.
Government commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
To support the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C, New Zealand/Aotearoa has committed to achieving net zero long-lived greenhouse gas emissions, and a 24–47 per cent reduction in biogenic methane emissions, compared with 2017 levels, by 2050.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet this commitment is both ambitious and achievable.
Visit the It's time, Canterbury website to find out more about climate change projections for Waitaha, or the climate change section on this website.